The multiples published in PwC studies, FINANCE magazine barometers and PitchBook reports are based mostly on large-cap transactions, listed peer groups and Bloomberg databases. The EBITDA multiples shown there for sectors such as machinery or IT services are often 8x to 12x. In the DACH Mittelstand with adjusted EBITDA between €0.5m and €5m, things look different. According to the DUB KMU-Multiples Q3/2026, machinery sits at 4.6x to 6.0x in the small cap segment and IT services at 6.6x to 8.5x. Machinery is therefore around half below, IT services around a quarter. There are structural reasons for this.
Three discounts are the main cause. The size discount reflects lower diversification and limited access to institutional buyers and lowers the multiple by 1.0x to 2.5x against the large-company benchmark. The illiquidity discount prices in the fact that shares in an owner-managed Mittelstand company cannot be traded daily and that the exit typically takes four to seven years. Concentration risk on the customer, supplier or staff side (top 3 customers above 30 percent, dependence on the owner-CEO) pushes the multiple down by a further 0.5x to 1.5x.
On top come DACH-specific factors that Anglo-Saxon comparison studies do not capture. The master craftsman requirement (Meisterzwang) in regulated trades (plumbing and heating, electrical, metalwork) ties the business to a single licensed person and creates a hard continuity gap in a sale. High owner dependence in many family businesses means that customer relationships, pricing and key decisions sit with the founder. And the typical retention of earnings on the balance sheet in the Mittelstand (retained profits of the last 20 years, non-operating real estate, excess cash) distorts EBITDA upwards as long as it is not adjusted.
The backdrop is a wave of successions. By the end of 2029 around 545,000 of 3.87 million Mittelstand companies are aiming for a succession, around 109,000 per year (KfW Research, 2026). For the narrower period 2026 to 2030, a succession is due for around 186,000 companies in Germany (IfM Bonn, 2025). This supply meets an active buyer market: how the private equity deal flow and the sector multiples relate to each other decides the realistic range per sector and size class.
A concrete example: a machinery maker with €3m EBITDA, a 20 percent export share and an owner-managed family business is typically traded in DACH today in the small cap band of 4.6x to 6.0x (as of Q3/2026). Large-cap values for the same sector are clearly higher. The difference is not irrational, it is the sum of size discount, illiquidity discount and owner risk. Anyone who ignores these structural discounts negotiates on the wrong benchmarks and will be disappointed in the bidding process at the latest.